COP31: Can Antalya turn climate pledges into action?
COP31 (31st Conference of the Parties) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) opens on 9th Nov and runs until 20th in Antalya, Türkiye. For the first time, the COP presidency is shared. Türkiye’s Minister for Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change, Murat Kurum, is COP President, and Australia's Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen, is President of Negotiations. A decade has passed since the Paris Agreement on climate action was adopted. However, the financial and political conditions for its implementation have only become more complex.
Emissions mitigation shortfall: United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return projects a 66% chance of warming to 2.8°C this century if current policies continue. Full delivery of all Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by the country parties towards greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation would reduce this to 2.6°C (66% chance). It states that even if every NDC and net-zero pledge were met, and efforts were maintained thereafter, warming would still reach about 2.1°C (66% chance). The report notes that the new NDCs submitted with a target year of 2035 “have a near-zero impact on expected emissions and warming”, and that their full implementation would “reduce expected global emissions in 2035 by 3.5-4 GtCO₂e compared with 2030 NDC levels”.
Further, the UNFCCC 2026 NDC Synthesis Report finds that the NDCs are “substantially off track” in enabling the emission reductions needed to limit warming to 1.5 °C this century and to keep the temporary overshoot shallow. This synthesis covers 127 new NDCs submitted by 154 parties to the Paris Agreement between January 2024 and August 2026. While appreciating the mainstreaming of climate policymaking, the report reveals that countries are increasingly considering domestic mitigation measures. It underscores that by 2030, 58%, 54%, and 41% of parties have included domestic mitigation targets to triple renewable energy capacity, double the average annual rate of energy efficiency, and substantially reduce non-CO2 emissions, particularly methane. Another 25% and 29% of parties have mentioned phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies and transitioning to sustainable patterns of consumption and production, respectively, without a target date.
New insights: The newly released 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2026/2027 report, compiled by Future Earth, The Earth League, and the World Climate Research Programme, finds that the shortfall in emissions mitigation targets by 2035 for the 1.5 °C consistent pathway is enormous; against a target of a 55% reduction by 2035 compared with 2019, the new NDCs enable at most a 12% reduction. The findings provide insights covering biophysical transformations in Earth systems, the governance arrangements needed for climate action, and economic and political barriers. Five insights stand out: overshooting 1.50C global warming is unavoidable; the social cost of carbon is severely underestimated; carbon removal is no longer optional; the water gap is widening, and continental drying is accelerating; and damage to ecosystems, livelihoods, and human impact during the overshoot period is not fully reversible.
What impedes climate action? The presidency has called COP31 the "COP of the Future" and is focused on implementation. However, amid wars, trade tensions, and civil society protests in several developed countries, how much commitment and patience can be expected for implementation? An attack on Iran by the USA is imminent during the fortnight COP31 meets. After unrest in Spain, Italy, France, and Albania, civil society and student unrest have erupted in Germany, and commentators see it developing into a continent-wide wave driven by cost-of-living pressures and AI anxiety. India is also seeing student, civil society, and political activity challenging the incumbent government. Election results in Hungary and Serbia have given civil society new confidence to raise concerns. Elections in Israel indicate that the disturbance in the Middle East will persist. Midterm election results in the USA have shifted the balance of power away from Republican President Donald Trump. Will it help climate action? Nonetheless, Brazilian election results are positive for climate action and the conservation of the Amazonian forest. Overall, the odds appear to be stacked against global coordination on climate action and finance commitments.
Impediments to climate action are largely political and procedural. Aside from murky geopolitics, NDCs submitted by the party countries are weak, and even these are not fully backed by enforceable domestic policy. Vulnerable countries face complex procedures, limited institutional capacity, and insufficient grant finance. Clean-technology supply chains are concentrated in a few countries, and high capital costs in developing countries slow deployment. Shocks such as the Hormuz blockade and inward-looking nationalism have put energy security ahead of decarbonisation. Moreover, unilateral trade measures such as carbon border adjustment mechanisms have shifted compliance costs to the Global South.
Presidency's priorities: Emphasising implementation through cooperation and collective action, the presidency has identified several priority areas. These include achieving the following by 2035: increasing electricity's share of final energy consumption to 35%, reducing the projected increase in annual waste generation by 50%, reducing energy intensity in the building sector by at least 25%, and increasing the use of recycled materials in manufacturing to 15%.
To ramp up climate action, the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) are important mechanisms. The GGA is an indicator-based strategy for climate resilience. The NCQG is a post-2025 climate finance mechanism to ramp up financing from developed countries to $300 billion annually, up from $100 billion.
The second global stocktake (GST2) will begin in Antalya. GST is a 5-yearly review process mandated under Article 14 of the Paris Agreement, covering three pillars: mitigation, adaptation, and means of implementation and support. It aims to take stock and encourage country parties to strengthen and revise their NDCs to support stronger domestic climate action and international cooperation.
What to expect: The outcomes will depend on whether global leaders attend Antalya. Their presence could boost climate action, while their absence may relegate it to ‘desirability’ when the immediacy of the climate crisis demands ‘urgency’. As the SDG Agenda 2030 is likely to expire this decade with significant shortfalls, parties may find it useful to adopt the action-based priorities identified by the presidency. Progress on the GST2 process is expected. NDCs and GSTs are important mechanisms for promoting climate action and feed into each other. Progress on GGA indicators is also expected, but greater clarity on NCQG is unlikely. Even if outcomes are incremental, enthusiasm among non-party observers and stakeholders may sustain momentum for climate action through civil society collaborations.
India at COP31: According to the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) Climate India 2026: an Assessment of Extreme Weather Events report, released on November 4, 2026, India was affected from January to September 2026 by severe drought, cyclones, and floods, resulting in about 3320 human deaths. An unusually strong El Niño is still developing. The deadly collapse and flooding in Nepal have exposed vulnerabilities in the Himalayas. India's negotiating position can continue to rest on equity through CBDR-RC (Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities), climate finance, and a just transition.
India can pitch NCQG delivery as grant-heavy and push for multilateral development bank reform to lower the cost of capital. While resisting unilateral trade measures such as carbon border adjustment mechanisms in line with Climate Convention Article 3.5, India should work to mainstream discussions on the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) and to operationalise the 59 GGA indicators adopted at Belém with funded means of implementation. Promoting forest- and ecosystem-based adaptation is necessary. India can endorse the presidency's ‘35 by 35’ electrification proposal as a voluntary nationally determined goal and should support a phase-down of all fossil fuels, not coal alone. Finally, India should credibly lead the Global South and bid to host COP33 in 2028, when GST2 concludes.
Antalya negotiations can help in closing the emissions gap if world leaders show up and developed nations’ funding commitments move forward. At the very least, COP31 should succeed in mainstreaming commitments to responsible production using more recycled materials, reducing waste to mitigate methane emissions, and increasing the share of electricity from renewable sources in the total energy mix, all of which directly contribute to emissions mitigation and the conservation of natural resources.
Dr. Jagmohan Sharma is a retired Indian Forest Service officer on the Board of the Public Affairs Centre
